UPDATED,Love And Thunder’ Saturday PM: Despite the lower-than-expected CinemaScore and PostTrak exits we were seeing for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film, Disney/Thor: Marvel’s Love and Thunder stayed strong on Saturday. We’ve heard that the Taika Waititi-directed sequel made $41M today, which is 1% more than its genuine Friday take of $40.5M (that is, $69.5M less $29M from Thursday previews). According to industry predictions made tonight, this will help Thor: Love and Thunder earn an estimated $140M–$143M on its debut.
After Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 2’s $146.5M, this figure ranks as the 12th greatest debut for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film.
Those A CinemaScores do matter when it comes to an MCU film’s box office endurance. With an A+ CinemaScore and a 3.1x multiple of its $260.1M three-day opening, Spider-Man: No Way Home reached a domestic final of $804.7M. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which received an A, earned over $3 times as much as its initial $75.3 million after three days, for a $224.5 million domestic total. But Eternals, which had a B CinemaScore, earned a 2.3x multiple, while Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which received a B+, saw a 2.19x off its $187.4M debut, leading to a 2.19x multiple for both films.
a current domestic take of $411M.
The second weekend of Universal/Minions: Illumination’s The Rise of Gru is expected to bring in roughly $45 million, significantly less than what we were seeing today, but it will still surpass $200 million with $209 million or more. This follows a $17.3M Saturday, up 20% from Friday. The seventh weekend of Top Gun: Maverick from Paramount brought in $15.5M, a -40% drop from the sixth weekend’s $4.46M, for a total of $597.4M. After a Saturday that was +33% higher than Friday, $4.4M vs. $3.3M, Warner Bros.’ third weekend of Elvis should come in at the predictions we were seeing earlier today, $11M, for a $91.1M running total.
The Instagram photo by Waititi received close to 200K likes today:
REVISED, Saturday Morning: The good news is that Disney/Thor: Marvel’s Love and Thunder is giving the booming theatre industry another $100M+ opening. The expected total weekend ticket sales for the whole market are $244 million.
That puts it 33 percent ahead of the same post-Independence Day weekend in 2019, when Spider-Man: Far From Home led all films with a $183.8M haul from Sony and the Marvel Cinematic Universe. If this summer has shown us anything, it’s that movies other than superhero ones can be successful on the big screen. Three other films this weekend are generating over $10 million each, despite the presence of a huge whale like Thor 4 on the marquee.
Thor: Love and Thunder had a $69.5M opening Friday (including $29M in previews) and is expected to earn between $135M and 145M over the course of the weekend, with premium big format theatres accounting for 37% of that total.
Thor: Love and Thunder’s premium price from the top exhibitors is another factor boosting sales.
According to EntTelligence, Thor 4 tickets cost an average of $15.05 per seat at AMC and $14.40 per seat at Regal between preview night and Friday, which is more than the $13.48 per seat national average. Only Cinemark had a ticket average that was less than that ($12.25).
Thor: Thunder and Love ‘s US/Canada opening weekend is without a doubt the greatest for a Taika Waititi-directed film, a Thor film, and a Natalie Portman movie (her previous record being Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith with $108M). After Jurassic World Dominion ($145M) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M), the fourth sequel will end up having the third-best domestic opening of 2022. Thor had a $100M+ opening, so there’s nothing to be upset about, even if it’s below estimates of $140M-$160M. Hello! We’ve come a long way from last year, when Disney was being sued by Scarlett Johansson for diluting Black Widow’s box revenue with her theatrical day-and-date Disney+ release ($80.3M opening).
However, Marvel scores a back-to-back B+ CinemaScore here following Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which hopefully won’t affect the momentum of Thor: Love and Thunder today or for the remainder of the summer. In comparison to Eternals’ 75 percent, Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits for broad audiences are still at 3 1/2 stars and 77% favourable. If you exclude Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which received an A+ from moviegoers, Disney/MCU has received three consecutive Bs since November’s Eternals (B).
What is happening here? Why the jaded audience responses? Is Marvel going too far by producing so many films and Disney+ series? Should we place the blame on the epidemic movie production rush? (Marvel did, however, have a major winner with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which was produced during Covid and received a “A” and allayed the industry’s concerns about moviegoing.)
Could it be Waititi’s absurdist humour? Or is it rather the case that this specific sequel doesn’t focus on the larger multiverse idea, which the most recent MCU phase established with Doctor Strange 2, Loki, and Spider-Man: No Way Home? Thor: Love and Thunder serves as another reminder to the MCU development team that if films start to feel too formulaic, ticket sales will suffer. Read: At $71.2M, Eternals had one of the worse domestic debuts for a Marvel film. Marvel used to had the special ability to consistently produce box office successes that were also well regarded by critics. Now what?
Naturally, social media analytics company RelishMix foresaw the audience’s reaction to Thor: Love and Thunder before it debuted:
Thor discourse has returned to the pre-pandemic cynicism, fun, and criticism from the MCU. Energy levels and tone are wildly inconsistent, leaning positive. Others remark that this production switches between superhero and Taika Waititi-style improv fun while some people question if this is a comedy. In other discussions, many wonder if Chris Hemsworth isn’t being overshadowed by Christian Bale and Natalie Portman as well as the role’s gender-bending aspects.
Thor: Love and Thunder saw the entire might of the Disney social media juggernaut in action, reaching a record-breaking 1.3 billion people on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. MCU actors Chris Hemsworth (82.4M fans), Chris Pratt (56.9M), Dave Bautista (14.1M), Natalie Portman (8M), and Taika Waititi (4.6M) are spearheading the internet promotional effort.
Pratt’s 1 million likes shoutout to Hemsworth:
Women over 25 received the highest ratings for Thor: Love and Thunder, scoring 82 percent positively, making them the third-largest demo for the film behind men over 25 (33%) and men under 25 (24%) (26 percent ). The diversity demographics were made up of 39% Caucasians, a fantastic 28% Hispanic and Latino participation, 16% African Americans, and 13% Asians.
On the other side, until Friday, 53% of moviegoers who watched Thor: Love and Thunder purchased their tickets on the day of the showing, which undoubtedly points to a brisk walk-up business. Even though Thor: Love and Thunder is doing incredibly well nationwide, the West and Southwest are where it’s most noticeable.
The Minions: The Rise of Gru movie, the sixth to do so this year, crossed the $200 million mark this weekend according to Universal. The Chris Melendandri production is seeing a 56 percent second weekend decline for $47.2M, and by EOD Sunday, it is anticipated to have a ten-day cume of $211.7M.
By Sunday, Top Gun: Maverick from Paramount/Skydance will be $3.5 million short of surpassing the $600 million mark domestically, joining a select group of 12 other films to accomplish so. The seventh weekend for the Tom Cruise film brought in $14.6M, a 44 percent decrease, for a total of $596.5M by EOD Sunday.
Give it up for Warner Bros.’s Elvis, which will soon become the second adult demo picture to exceed $100M without being a franchise, following Paramount’s romantic adventure The Lost City, which earned $105.3M. The third Friday of the Baz Luhrmann-directed musical biography raked in $3.3M, down 38% from the previous week, and put it on track for a projected $11M third weekend, down 40%, and a final gross of $91.1M.
This is a significant turning point for the domestic box office. Although it was true before the epidemic, producers are now accustomed to the concept of generating money by selling adult titles to streamers. A streamer will also sweeten its offer to a filmmaker by spending more money on their film than a traditional movie studio would.
Elvis demonstrates that not everyone likes to see movies about non-superheroes at home. Before Disney/Black Marvel’s Panther: Wakanda Forever delivers the next $100M+ weekend opening, there will be a long wait in the theatre market. A variety of mid-sized films will be released in theatres over the course of the next three months by the big studios, under pressure to make them significant events.
Saturday AM estimates:
1.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 4,375 theaters, Fri. $69.5M, 3-day $135M-$145M/Wk 1
2.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 4,427 theaters (+36), Fri $14.4M (-70%), 3-day $47.2M (-56%), Total: $211.7M/Wk 2
3.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,513 (-330) theaters, Fri $4.4M (-38%), 3-day $14.6M (-44%), Total $596.5M/Wk 7
4.) Elvis (WB) 3,714 theaters (-218), Fri $3.3M (-38%), 3-day $11M (-40%) Total $91.1M/Wk 3
5.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 3,251 (-550) theaters, Fri $2.35M (-50%), 3-day $8.1M (-50%), Total $350M/Wk 5
6.) The Black Phone (Uni) 2,559 (-597) theaters, Fri $2.34M (-41%) 3-day $7.45M (-39%)/Total $62.1M: Wk 3
7.) Lightyear (Dis) 2,090 (-1,710) theaters, Fri $939K (-53%), 3-day $2.82M (-62%), Total $112.2M/Wk 4
8.) Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24) 48 theaters (+26), Fri $102K (+11%), 3-day $322,6K (+25%), Total $946K/Wk 3
9.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 286 (-321) theaters, Fri $68,5K (-51%), 3-day $255,6K (-54%), Total $67.4M/Wk 16
10.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 140 (-450) theaters, Fri $87k (-19%),, 3-day $253,6K (-39%), Total $411M/Wk 10
11.) Mr. Malcolm’s List (BST) 1,057 (-327) theaters, Fri $76K (-75%), 3-day $248K (-69%), Total: $1.6M/Wk 2
UPDATED, Friday afternoon: Thor: Love and Thunder from Disney/Marvel appears to be bringing in roughly $70M for Friday, with a $130M-$140M opening weekend. It’s a great start if those estimates hold true. The fourquel outperformed Thor: Ragnarok’s opening weekend of $46.4M by 51 percent and its three-day total of $122.7M by 14% on the high end, so there’s no need to be pessimistic about this. This anticipated $70 million total includes the $29 million in previews from yesterday night. If that number holds true, it would surpass Iron Man 3’s $68.8M opening day from 2013 and fall behind Captain America: Civil War’s $75.5M from three years later to rank as the ninth-best opening day for an MCU title.
The Thursday night preview audience exits from Screen Engine/PostTrak Comscore’s weren’t extremely high for an MCU movie last night, when all the die-hards come out. It received 3 1/2 stars from general audiences and a 63 percent definite recommend, as well as 3 1/2 stars from children under the age of 12. At 4 stars, parents thought it was somewhat better. 84 percent of last night’s ticket sales were from general audiences, including 9 percent from parents and 4 percent from children. 53 percent of the audience was between the ages of 18 and 34, with 58 percent men and 42 percent women. Men over 25 made up the majority (34%) of the population, followed by women over 25 (25%) and men under 25 (24%) and women under 25 (6%).
FIXED, Friday Morning: Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder was the crowd favourite on Thursday night. It earned $29 million during showtimes that started at 3 p.m., comfortably ranking second in 2022 behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ $36M. Thor: Love and Thunder’s revenue is solely derived from Thursday night ticket sales, unlike other studios seeking to inflate their preview figures with Tuesday or Wednesday night showings. Note this.
Aside from Avengers: Endgame ($60M), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($50M), Avengers: Infinity War ($39M), and Doctor Strange 2, Thor: Love and Thunder has the fifth-largest MCU previews.
The fourth sequel, directed by Taika Waititi, was expected to earn between $140M and $160M earlier in the week. Although Waititi’s relaunch of the Marvel superhero with 2017’s Thor: Ragnarok (also the highest opening and franchise-grossing movie at $122.7M, and a $315M final in U.S.-Canada) thrilled critics, they have soured on this chapter, giving it a 68 percent fresh rating. In spite of this, rumours have it that supporters will still support the concert and come. Ragnarok now has an audience rating of 87 percent, compared to 85 percent for Rotten Tomatoes.
When it comes to a Marvel movie, you always have to wait it out to see how frontloaded it is or whether it’s lassoing another ticket sales stratosphere given how the MCU enthusiasts turn out on Thursday night. For instance, while having a smaller preview figure than Doctor Strange 2 ($27.6M), Avengers: Age of Ultron ended up earning more money during the weekend ($191.2M). The same is true for Black Panther, which earned $25.2 million on Thursday night before soaring to a three-day total of $202 million (granted, that was over a four-day Presidents Day weekend). But expect Oscar winner Waititi to undoubtedly have his largest opening weekend ever with Love and Thunder.
Oh, and the fourth sequel made twice as much money last night—$14.5M—as Ragnarok did from its previews. 31 percent of that movie’s $46.4M opening day’s revenue came from previews.
Pre-sales for Love and Thunder came in at $48 million, which, while falling short of Doctor Strange 2’s $85 million (that film riding the coattails of Spider-Man: No Way Home), outperformed Jurassic World Dominion’s $40 million, Top Gun: Maverick’s $38 million, and The Batman’s $42 million on the Thursday before opening day. At $187.4M, Doctor Strange 2 now has the biggest opening of the year. Jurassic World: Dominion is in second place with $145M. The latter film barely made $18M off of Thursday night and early-week screenings combined at 4 p.m. Love and Thunder’s weekend must undoubtedly exceed the dinosaurs’ gross.
The Rise of Gru, a movie from Illumination/Universal, earned a record-breaking $123 million first four days of business on July 4. Every workday has witnessed double-digit million dollar earnings, with Thursday bringing in $10.3M, down 24% from Wednesday, for a $164.5M first-week revenue. That just lags 2015’s Minions by 1.1%.